9 Predictions for 2016

Matt Yglesias of Vox wrote a piece titled “11 bold predictions for 2015” at the end of 2014, and though it’s already January 2, I thought it would be a fun idea to try myself this year. So here are a few (admittedly not especially bold) guesses at what will happen in 2016.

1.   The Republican Party nominates Ted Cruz

I still don’t think Donald Trump can win the nomination, but he has led primary polls for months now. The idea of a Trump victory is no longer implausible. I do think Ted Cruz made a persuasive case in recent remarks to donors for why support for Trump and Carson will eventually flow to him when GOP voters actually have to decide on a candidate. There is already evidence this is happening in Iowa.

So I’ll tentatively say Cruz wins a protracted nomination fight to become the GOP nominee with Marco Rubio not consolidating establishment support quickly enough to outpace him. A wild guess says Trump fades sometime between the February 9 New Hampshire primary and Super Tuesday on March 1.

2.   Hillary Clinton is elected President of the United States

Not exactly going out on a limb here, especially in the primary. 

Clinton leads in the polls, has raised the most money, and has been endorsed by more elected officials than Bernie Sanders or Martin O’Malley. Sanders might win the New Hampshire primary, bur aside from that, it’s difficult to her path to the Democratic nomination derailed.

Vice presidential nominees? Guessing who the major party nominees will select to be their running mates is a fool’s errand and frankly not particularly consequential. But for the sake of this post: Clinton picks Tim Kaine, the Senator from Virginia, and Cruz picks Susana Martinez, the Governor of New Mexico.

The fundamentals favor the Democrats in the general election, slightly. Democrats are viewed more favorably than Republicans among voters. The economy continues to slowly grow. Changing demographics of the electorate favor Democrats. President Obama’s approval ratings (now below 45%) and the potential economic effects of the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates are the two biggest concerns for Clinton’s chances. The impact of changes to voting laws also could hurt Democrats.

But I still think Clinton wins, by similar margins to Obama four years ago: 51.5% of the popular vote to 46.9% for Cruz, 341 to 197 in the Electoral College (identical to the 2012 map but North Carolina goes blue and Iowa goes red).

3.   Democrats retake the U.S. Senate

Six years after the 2010 Tea Party wave, the GOP has to defend a number of Senate seats in blue and purple states in a presidential election year with higher turnout. If Hillary wins a fairly decisive result, her coattails should be enough to get Democrats at least the four seats they need to retake the majority in the upper chamber. I think they hold Colorado and Nevada and gain Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Florida, and Ohio, giving them 51 (counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King in the Democratic caucus) of the 100 seats.

4.   Republicans win a reduced majority in the House

The House is a completely different story, where a Republican majority is all but guaranteed due to a number of structural factors. Higher turnout in a presidential election year will boost Democrats, as will court rulings curbing gerrymandering in Florida and Virginia. But this will only make a difference at the margins. Prediction: Republicans 237, Democrats 198 (D+10 from 2014).

So prepare for more gridlock come 2017! But also probably some important executive branch and judicial appointments and positive regulatory changes.

5.   Chicago Cubs break the curse

I complain about the Dodgers not having much success on the field in my lifetime, but it doesn’t even compare to what Cubs fans have gone through: no championships since 1908, and they haven’t even been to the World Series since 1945.

Well, they won 97 games last year and in the offseason added Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist to a lineup that already featured Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Chicago also signed John Lackey to be the third starter behind Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.

On paper, this is the team to beat. To meet those high expectations, of course, the Cubs will need to stay healthy and get a little bit lucky. But isn’t a team that hasn’t won a championship in 108 years due for a little luck?

6.   Golden State Warriors repeat as NBA champions

Golden State has cooled off slightly since their unfathomable 24-0 start (partially due to injuries) and the Spurs present a definite challenge in what should be a great Western Conference Finals. But statistically this is a historically great team that looks poised to roll through the playoffs. Warriors over the Cavaliers in 5 in a rematch of last year's finals. 

Get ready for more Riley Curry celebration Vines.

7.   Arsenal win the Premier League title

Usually it’s unwise to count on Arsenal not to collapse under meaningful competitive pressure. But the 2015-16 season presents a genuinely open Premier League title race. Chelsea’s title defense is in shambles. Manchester United seem to have forgotten how to score. Manchester City, Tottenham, and (to a lesser extent) Leicester City are all formidable in their own ways, but there’s no a reason a side with a healthy (knock on wood) Mesut Özil, Alexis Sanchez, and Theo Walcott forming the basis of attack can’t finish ahead of those three in the table. Getting Petr Cech in summer filled a longstanding need in goal as well.

Arsenal have a golden opportunity to win the Premier League for the first time since their undefeated 2003-04 season. I think they take it.

8.   Spotlight wins Best Picture, Leonardo DiCaprio wins Best Actor

I quite enjoyed Spotlight (as I mentioned on a recent M&M Report) and according to Vulture, it is the front-runner in a relatively wide open Best Picture category at this year’s Academy Awards. So I hope a film that actually does a good job portraying journalism will prevail and I think it has a good shot.

I also think Leonardo DiCaprio finally gets a long-sought Best Actor win for his performance in The Revenant. The apparent physicality of the performance and intense weather conditions during production help, but his best asset is the relative absence of fierce competition in the Best Actor category, which has been his true obstacle in years past.

Best Actress? Much less confident about this category, in part because it is more competitive. I think it comes down to Saoirse Ronan from Brooklyn and Brie Larson in Room. Both are great performances, but I think Ronan ultimately gets the award, as Brooklyn strikes me as more of an Academy-friendly movie.

9.   "Cord cutting" trend accelerates.

This isn’t necessarily quantifiable, especially since it's already a discussion topic, but I do think 2016 will see a palpable increase in cord cutting.

ESPN has lost 7 million cable subscribers in the last two years, a principal reason that Disney stock was down to end the year despite the success of Star Wars. This is largely because Americans, particularly younger people, are increasingly canceling their cable subscriptions. The new TV deal the NBA struck with ABC/ESPN and Turner will increase all cable bills a few dollars per month by itself as costs are passed down to consumers, further motivating subscribers to opt out.

I think this accelerates the already noticeable trend towards cord cutting, cable networks and cable providers start noticing the cancellations in their bottom lines, and the various dimensions of the issue gets quite a bit of media coverage in 2016 when people get tired of discussing the presidential election.